How to Build a Market View Without Getting Lost in Noise

Here’s a better approach.

This is the same process we use internally - both as individual investors and while building tools at Trade & Tonic.

Start With One Clear Question

Before diving into charts or macro data, ask yourself one simple question.

Not “What’s going on in markets?” - that’s too vague.

Try something more specific, like:

• Is this a good time to add risk?

• What’s the core driver of the current rally?

• Are bonds starting to price in a policy pivot?

If you don’t start with a question, you’ll just react to whatever content hits your feed. Your brain needs a target.

Structure Your Thinking Across Three Layers

Once you’ve defined the question, break down your view into three distinct layers:

Macro → Technicals → Sentiment.

1. Macro context.
You want to understand where we are in the cycle. Are central banks tightening or easing? Are inflation trends supportive or concerning? What’s happening with employment, growth, and liquidity?

You don’t need to be an economist - but you do need to understand the environment your trades are sitting in.

2. Technical structure.
Next, zoom in on how markets are actually behaving. You’re not looking for magic indicators. Just identify whether price action supports or contradicts the broader macro picture. Look at trend direction, recent breakouts or breakdowns, and key levels.

The goal isn’t to trade every signal - it’s to understand whether the market is reinforcing or ignoring the macro setup.

3. Sentiment.
This is the layer most people skip. What are people saying - and how does it compare to what’s actually happening? Are traders too bullish? Are people fading a rally that continues to grind higher?

Sentiment doesn’t predict turning points, but it does help you manage risk. You don’t want to be the last person into a crowded trade.

Pulling It Together

Now comes the hard part: synthesis.

You’ve looked at the macro backdrop, the technical behavior, and the current mood of the market. What’s the takeaway?

Try to write one short paragraph: two sentences at most - that captures your view. If it feels vague, you haven’t done the work yet. Push for clarity.

Here’s an example:

“Macro signals are weakening, inflation is sticky, and central banks aren’t done yet. But tech is breaking out on strong volume. I’m staying long for now but reducing size and watching sentiment closely.”

This kind of thinking gives you a directional bias without falling into overconfidence. You’re not trying to predict the future. You’re just trying to act with more clarity than the person on the other side of the trade.

Build a Habit Around It

This isn’t something you do once and forget. It works best when you turn it into a routine.

Block 45 minutes once a week, Sunday night or Monday morning works well and run through this exact process. Log your market view, even if you’re unsure. Come back the next week and review: Did the market agree or disagree? Were you early, late, or just wrong?

Over time, this builds not just better positioning, but better judgment.

Why We Built Trade & Tonic This Way

The reason we built T&T around this model is simple: it reflects how real investors actually think.

Most tools give you more data. We wanted to build something that gives you more clarity: a structured breakdown of macro, technicals, and sentiment in one place. A second brain for market thinking, not just another feed to scroll.

If that kind of thinking resonates, you’re probably the kind of person we’re building for.